Original Research

Long-term variability in vegetation productivity in relation to rainfall, herbivory and fire in Tswalu Kalahari Reserve

Wataru Tokura, Sam L. Jack, Tania Anderson, Michael T. Hoffman
Koedoe | Vol 60, No 1 | a1473 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v60i1.1473 | © 2018 Wataru Tokura, Sam L. Jack, Tania Anderson, Michael T. Hoffman | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 03 May 2017 | Published: 31 July 2018

About the author(s)

Wataru Tokura, Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa
Sam L. Jack, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa
Tania Anderson, Private, Johannesburg, South Africa
Michael T. Hoffman, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract

Exploring the long-term influence of climate and land use on vegetation change allows for a more robust understanding of how vegetation is likely to respond in the future. To inform management, this study investigated the relationship between vegetation productivity trends and potential drivers of change in the 110 000 ha of the Tswalu Kalahari Reserve between 2000 and 2015, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MOD13Q1). Spatio-temporal variability of the EVI was mapped and then related to the historical records of precipitation, animal numbers and fire occurrences. Long-term trends in productivity were analysed by residual trend analysis (RESTREND). Significantly different EVI profiles were found between vegetation types, and this was related to the structure and function of the vegetation, as well as the effects of soil reflectance. The EVI time-series signalled spatial and temporal heterogeneity in plant productivity, which was strongly correlated with rainfall, although fire and especially herbivory had noteworthy localised effects on productivity. The RESTREND identified a significant positive trend in plant productivity in shrub-dominated vegetation types, providing evidence for the ongoing thickening of woody species. Significant negative trends in productivity were associated with artificial water points and more heavily stocked areas, leading to degradation.

Conservation implications: The southern Kalahari has a highly variable rainfall regime, which is tied to a dynamic vegetation response. This variability should be taken into account when making management decisions. Field-based monitoring together with adaptive management approaches are needed in the face of an uncertain future in which significant warming is expected.

Keywords

Bush encroachment; Long-term monitoring; MODIS EVI; Remote sensing; RESTREND

Metrics

Total abstract views: 5614
Total article views: 6189

 

Crossref Citations

1. Mistletoes as Indicators of the Intensity of Browsing by Large Mammals in Kalahari Savanna
Jeremy J. Midgley, Robert L. Thomson, Michael D. Cramer
African Journal of Ecology  vol: 63  issue: 6  year: 2025  
doi: 10.1111/aje.70088

2. Community‐ and species‐level responses of reptiles to an avian ecosystem engineer
Emma E. Buckley, Bryan Maritz
Journal of Zoology  vol: 328  issue: 2  first page: 203  year: 2026  
doi: 10.1111/jzo.70087

3. Compensatory Breeding in Years Following Drought in a Desert-Dwelling Cooperative Breeder
Amanda R. Bourne, Susan J. Cunningham, Claire N. Spottiswoode, Amanda R. Ridley
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution  vol: 8  year: 2020  
doi: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00190

4. Predicting the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Syncerus caffer under varying climate dynamics in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem in Kenya
Marion Warau Mwaniki, Moses Murimi Ngigi, Bartholomew Thiong’o Kuria, Collins Mwange Mwungu
Theoretical and Applied Climatology  vol: 157  issue: 1  year: 2026  
doi: 10.1007/s00704-025-05994-y

5. Savannah Phenological Dynamics Reveal Spatio-Temporal Landscape Heterogeneity in Karamoja Sub-region, Uganda
Anthony Egeru, John Paul Magaya, Derick Ansyijar Kuule, Aggrey Siya, Anthony Gidudu, Bernard Barasa, Jjumba Justine Namaalwa
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems  vol: 4  year: 2020  
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2020.541170

6. Anthropogenic supply of nutrients in a wildlife reserve may compromise conservation success
Andrew J. Abraham, Ethan S. Duvall, Elizabeth le Roux, Andre Ganswindt, Marcus Clauss, Christopher E. Doughty, Andrea B. Webster
Biological Conservation  vol: 284  first page: 110149  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110149

7. Mountains and their ecotones increase landscape heterogeneity and maintain a unique assemblage of grasshoppers in the southern Kalahari
Aileen C. van der Mescht, Daryl Codron
Ecological Entomology  vol: 48  issue: 2  first page: 226  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1111/een.13217

8. Large predators can mitigate nutrient losses associated with off‐site removal of animals from a wildlife reserve
Andrew J. Abraham, Andrea B. Webster, Tomos O. Prys‐Jones, Elizabeth le Roux, Dylan Smith, Duncan McFayden, Pieter C. de Jager, Marcus Clauss, Christopher E. Doughty
Journal of Applied Ecology  vol: 58  issue: 7  first page: 1360  year: 2021  
doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13878

9. A non-invasive footprint technique for accurate identification of cryptic small mammal species: a sengi case study
Sky Alibhai, Nico Avenant, Maria Oosthuizen, Lynn Carlson, Duncan MacFadyen, Zoë Jewell
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution  vol: 13  year: 2026  
doi: 10.3389/fevo.2025.1719684

10. Hot droughts compromise interannual survival across all group sizes in a cooperatively breeding bird
Amanda R. Bourne, Susan J. Cunningham, Claire N. Spottiswoode, Amanda R. Ridley, Noa Pinter‐Wollman
Ecology Letters  vol: 23  issue: 12  first page: 1776  year: 2020  
doi: 10.1111/ele.13604

11. Ecological engineering across a temporal gradient: Sociable weaver colonies create year‐round animal biodiversity hotspots
Anthony M. Lowney, Robert L. Thomson
Journal of Animal Ecology  vol: 90  issue: 10  first page: 2362  year: 2021  
doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13544

12. Response of herbaceous vegetation in the southern kalahari following a prolonged drought
Marnus Smit, Paul Malan, Nico Smit, Francois Deacon
Journal of Arid Environments  vol: 222  first page: 105157  year: 2024  
doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2024.105157

13. A review of fire management practices in African savanna-protected areas
Willem A. Nieman, Brian W. Van Wilgen, Alison J. Leslie
Koedoe  vol: 63  issue: 1  year: 2021  
doi: 10.4102/koedoe.v63i1.1655

14. Seasonal activity patterns of a Kalahari mammal community: Trade‐offs between environmental heat load and predation pressure
Mika M. Vermeulen, Hervé Fritz, W. Maartin Strauss, Robyn S. Hetem, Jan A. Venter
Ecology and Evolution  vol: 14  issue: 4  year: 2024  
doi: 10.1002/ece3.11304

15. Impact of Wildlife Grazing During Drought on Herbaceous Vegetation in a Semiarid Rangeland and Postdrought Recovery
Zacharias Martinus Smit, Paulus Johannes Malan, Gert Nicolaas Smit, Francois Deacon
Rangeland Ecology & Management  vol: 101  first page: 54  year: 2025  
doi: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.03.009

16. Breeding biology of the African Pygmy Falcon: long-term variation and seasonal decline in breeding performance of an arid zone raptor
Olufemi P. Olubodun, Anthony M. Lowney, Diana Bolopo, Robert L. Thomson
Journal of Ornithology  vol: 164  issue: 3  first page: 689  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1007/s10336-023-02065-9

17. Do seasonal dietary shifts by Temminck's pangolins compensate for winter resource scarcity in a semi-arid environment?
Wendy Panaino, Francesca Parrini, Makabudi V. Phakoago, Dylan Smith, Gus van Dyk, Andrea Fuller
Journal of Arid Environments  vol: 197  first page: 104676  year: 2022  
doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104676

18. Endozoochory by Black Rhinoceroses Enhances Germination of a Key Arid Savanna Tree Species
O. E. Jones, H. Beckett, A. J. Abraham, N. P. Makunga, G. F. Midgley
Ecology and Evolution  vol: 15  issue: 9  year: 2025  
doi: 10.1002/ece3.71951

19. Caloplaca tswaluensis (Teloschistales, Teloschistaceae): a new species from South Africa with plurilocular ascospores
Alan Fryday, Stanislav Svoboda, Jan Vondrák, Danielle A. Ward, Madeleen Struwig
The Lichenologist  vol: 56  issue: 4  first page: 149  year: 2024  
doi: 10.1017/S0024282924000185

20. Temminck’s pangolins relax the precision of body temperature regulation when resources are scarce in a semi-arid environment
Wendy Panaino, Francesca Parrini, Peter R Kamerman, Robyn S Hetem, Leith C R Meyer, Dylan Smith, Gus van Dyk, Andrea Fuller, Sean Tomlinson
Conservation Physiology  vol: 11  issue: 1  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1093/conphys/coad068

21. Understanding anthropogenic impacts on zoogeochemistry is essential for ecological restoration
Andrew J. Abraham, Ethan Duvall, Kristy Ferraro, Andrea B. Webster, Christopher E. Doughty, Elizabeth le Roux, Diego Ellis‐Soto
Restoration Ecology  vol: 31  issue: 3  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1111/rec.13778

22. Prey preference and dietary overlap between the aardvark and Temminck's pangolin in the kalahari
Makabudi Phakoago, Wendy Panaino, Shane K. Maloney, Andrea Fuller
Journal of Arid Environments  vol: 230  first page: 105422  year: 2025  
doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105422

23. Interspecies teamwork: Evidence of interspecific foraging associations between Cape foxes and striped polecats in the southern Kalahari
Wendy Panaino, Sandra Lai, Alexander Sliwa
African Journal of Ecology  vol: 61  issue: 1  first page: 217  year: 2023  
doi: 10.1111/aje.13082

24. Winter thermoregulation in free-ranging pygmy falcons in the Kalahari Desert
Jess Lund, Diana Bolopo, Robert L. Thomson, Dorianne L. Elliott, Luke F. Arnot, Ryno Kemp, Anthony M. Lowney, Andrew E. McKechnie
Journal of Ornithology  vol: 161  issue: 2  first page: 549  year: 2020  
doi: 10.1007/s10336-020-01755-y