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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">KOEDOE</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>KOEDOE - African Protected Area Conservation and Science</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0075-6458</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">2071-0771</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>AOSIS</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">KOEDOE-62-1605</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4102/koedoe.v62i1.1605</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>A preliminary assessment of the presence and distribution of invasive and potentially invasive alien plant species in Laikipia County, Kenya, a biodiversity hotspot</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2257-4411</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Witt</surname>
<given-names>Arne B.R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1076-0535</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Nunda</surname>
<given-names>Winnie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8324-1923</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Beale</surname>
<given-names>Tim</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2599-8105</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Kriticos</surname>
<given-names>Darren J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0003">3</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0004">4</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="AF0001"><label>1</label>Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), Nairobi, Kenya</aff>
<aff id="AF0002"><label>2</label>Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), Oxfordshire, United Kingdom</aff>
<aff id="AF0003"><label>3</label>Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australia</aff>
<aff id="AF0004"><label>4</label>School of Biological Science, University of Queensland, Lucia, Australia</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><bold>Corresponding author:</bold> Arne Witt, <email xlink:href="a.witt@cabi.org">a.witt@cabi.org</email></corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>09</month><year>2020</year></pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date>
<volume>62</volume>
<issue>1</issue>
<elocation-id>1605</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>10</month><year>2019</year></date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>06</month><year>2020</year></date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>&#x00A9; 2020. The Authors</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Licensee: AOSIS. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>This is the first assessment of naturalised, invasive and potentially invasive alien plant species present in Laikipia County, Kenya, which hosts the highest populations of endangered large mammals in the country. We undertook broad-scale roadside surveys in Laikipia, recording all naturalised and invasive species, and based on an extensive literature review, also compiled a list of those alien species present that are known to threaten biodiversity and livelihoods elsewhere in the world. The data were supplemented by CLIMEX eco-climatic niche models of nine species that we consider to pose the biggest threat to conservation initiatives in the East African region. Of the 145 alien plant species recorded, 67 and 37 (including four species of uncertain origin) were considered to be already naturalised or invasive, respectively, and a further 41 species had been recorded as being naturalised or invasive outside of Laikipia. Most (141) of these species were introduced as ornamentals only or had uses in addition to being ornamentals, with the majority (77) having their origins in tropical America. Widespread species in the county included <italic>Opuntia stricta, O. ficus-indica, Austrocylindropuntia subulata</italic> and other succulents. Based on the current eco-climatic conditions, most of Laikipia is unsuitable for <italic>Chromolaena odorata</italic>, marginally suitable for <italic>Mimosa pigra</italic> and <italic>Lantana camara</italic>, and a better climatic match, ranked from least to most favourable, for <italic>Tithonia diversifolia, Cryptostegia grandiflora, Parthenium hysterophorus, Prosopis juliflora, O. stricta</italic> and <italic>Parkinsonia aculeata</italic>.</p>
<sec id="st1">
<title>Conservation implications</title>
<p>Invasive alien plants are known to have negative impacts on biodiversity, and as such pose significant threats to protected area ecosystems worldwide. Without efforts to eradicate, contain or control invasive plant species in Laikipia, one of the most important conservation areas in eastern Africa many rare and iconic wildlife species may be lost.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>invasive alien plants</kwd>
<kwd>distribution</kwd>
<kwd>management</kwd>
<kwd>protected areas</kwd>
<kwd>alien plant species</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s0001">
<title>Introduction</title>
<p>Invasive alien species are those plants and animals that have been introduced by people, either intentionally or unintentionally, outside of their natural range or outside of their natural dispersal potential, and are destructive to the environment in which they have established and proliferated (UNEP <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0068">2002</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Invasive alien species (plants and animals) pose a significant threat to biodiversity (Py&#x0161;ek et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0049">2012</xref>; Randall <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0050">1996</xref>; Vil&#x00E0; et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0076">2011</xref>). For example, a global meta-analysis by Vil&#x00E0; et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0076">2011</xref>) found that invasive plants decrease native plant species diversity and abundance. These plant invasions may have cascading trophic effects (Bailey, Schweitzer &#x0026; Whitham <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0003">2001</xref>; Sakai et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0054">2001</xref>; Valentine, Roberts &#x0026; Schwartzkopf <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0070">2007</xref>) by decreasing animal fitness and abundance (Vil&#x00E0; et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0076">2011</xref>). This is especially an issue for protected areas where the primary goal is biodiversity conservation (eds. Foxcroft et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0016">2013</xref>; Funk &#x0026; Vitousek <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2007</xref>; Hobbs &#x0026; Humphries <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0029">1995</xref>).</p>
<p>De Poorter (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0011">2007</xref>) identified 487 protected areas worldwide in which invasive alien species (plants and animals) were recorded as a threat. Allen, Brown and Stohlgren (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0001">2009</xref>) reported 20 305 alien plant species invasions in 218 national parks in the United States. Invasive plant species have also been reported from protected areas in Australia (Setterfield et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0056">2013</xref>), South America (Pauchard et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0047">2013</xref>), Europe (Py&#x0161;ek et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0048">2013</xref>), India (Hiremath &#x0026; Sundaram <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0028">2013</xref>) and elsewhere (see eds. Foxcroft et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0016">2013</xref>). More than 60&#x0025; of managers in United States national parks indicated that alien plant invasions were of moderate or major concern (Randall <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0051">2011</xref>). Goodman (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2003</xref>) found that invasive plants pose the biggest threat to protected areas in the province of Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa, and protected area managers in Europe perceive invasive species as the second greatest threat to biodiversity (Py&#x0161;ek et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0048">2013</xref>). Invasions also impact on communities that are dependent on natural resources for their survival as reported by Mwangi and Swallow (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0046">2008</xref>), Maundu et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0042">2009</xref>), Kebede and Coppock (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0035">2015</xref>), Shackleton et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0057">2017a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0058">2017b</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0059">2017c</xref>) and Witt, Beale and Van Wilgen (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0082">2018</xref>). There is therefore a global imperative to manage these species to protect biodiversity and improve livelihoods, especially in mixed-use landscapes, where the main goals are biodiversity conservation and livestock production.</p>
<p>Most plant species that are now invasive in protected areas were initially intentionally introduced for ornamental purposes, accidentally by tourists or staff, whereas others may have invaded the protected area through natural dispersal from surrounding areas (Allen et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0001">2009</xref>; Meyerson &#x0026; Py&#x0161;ek <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0045">2013</xref>). Tourist facilities, including staff villages, and villages interspersed within conservation areas can be an important source of invasive alien plant species. Foxcroft, Richardson and Wilson (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0017">2008</xref>) surveyed 36 tourist camps and staff villages in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and identified 258 alien plant species, several of which had already escaped cultivation and become invasive. In the Garden Route National Park (GRNP), also in South Africa, Baard and Kraaij (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>) recorded 244 species of alien plants of which 59&#x0025; were invasive. Witt et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>) recorded 245 alien plant species in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, East Africa, of which 212 were intentionally introduced into gardens. Of these 212 species, 23 had escaped cultivation, and were recorded as being invasive outside of gardens.</p>
<p>The first step in facilitating the management of these invasive alien plants is to gain a better understanding of their presence, distribution and impacts (Shackleton et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0057">2017a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0058">2017b</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0059">2017c</xref>; Witt et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0082">2018</xref>). Here, we report on the naturalised, invasive and potentially invasive alien plant species in Laikipia County, Kenya, one of the most important multiple-use conservation areas in eastern Africa (Sundaresan &#x0026; Riginos <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0064">2010</xref>). Despite only 2&#x0025; of the land in Laikipia having been set aside exclusively for wildlife conservation (Georgiadis et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0021">2007</xref>), the county is home to the second highest abundance of wildlife in East Africa, after the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, and hosts the highest populations of endangered large mammals in Kenya, including half of the country&#x2019;s rhino population, together with significant populations of elephants, Grevy&#x2019;s zebra, reticulated giraffe and wild dogs (Sundaresan &#x0026; Riginos <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0064">2010</xref>). In fact, the county is home to a higher diversity of large mammals than either the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania or KNP in South Africa (Sundaresan &#x0026; Riginos <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0064">2010</xref>), with the highest diversity of large mammal species of similar size anywhere in the world (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>). Of the 62 large mammal species present in the county, one is &#x2018;critically endangered&#x2019;, two are &#x2018;endangered&#x2019;, four are &#x2018;vulnerable&#x2019; and six are &#x2018;near threatened&#x2019; (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>). Moreover, 50&#x0025; of Kenya&#x2019;s bird species (i.e. more than 560 species) have been recorded in Laikipia (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>). The only known previous study on the naturalised and invasive plants present in this county was a field guide produced by Witt (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>), which did not include any detailed analyses of the data collected. Other studies on invasive plants conducted in the area focussed on the invasion of <italic>Opuntia stricta</italic> (Haw.) Haw. (Cactaceae) (Strum, Stirling &#x0026; Mutunga <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0063">2015</xref>) or the associated impacts of <italic>O. stricta</italic> invasion (Dudenhoeffer &#x0026; Hodge <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2018</xref>; Dyck <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2017</xref>). We provide a list of naturalised and/or invasive alien plant species recorded in Laikipia and include alien plant species present that are known to be naturalised or invasive elsewhere in the world, but have not been recorded as such in Laikipia at the time of the survey. We also provide distribution data, based on roadside surveys, for the most invasive species. We also assess the eco-climatic suitability of Laikipia to invasions by some of the worst invasive alien plant species in eastern Africa, a few of which are already present in Laikipia. This information will be useful in prioritising species for management to protect biodiversity and enhance livelihoods.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s0002">
<title>Methods</title>
<sec id="s20003">
<title>Study site</title>
<p>Approximately 9500 km<sup>2</sup> in extent, Laikipia County in central Kenya is a mix of grasslands, savanna woodland and forest, lying between the Aberdares Range (4000 m asl) to the south and southwest, Mount Kenya (5200 m asl) to the east and southeast, Eastern (Gregory) Rift Valley (c. 970 m asl) to the west, Karisia Hills (2580 m asl) to the northwest, Mathews Range (2688 m asl) to the north and Buffalo Springs National Reserve and Samburu National Reserve (c. 900 m asl) to the northeast (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0001">Figure 1</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F0001">
<label>FIGURE 1</label>
<caption><p>Map showing the location of Kenya in Africa (inset) and the location of Laikipia County within Kenya.</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="KOEDOE-62-1605-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Laikipia experiences a dry and cool climate, which is influenced by the presence of Mount Kenya and the Aberdare mountain range. Daily maximum temperatures are around 25 &#x00B0;C, except for the northern part, which is a little warmer, with December and January being the warmest months (LWF <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0041">2012</xref>). Mean annual rainfall increases with elevation, from 400 mm in the northeast to 1000 mm in the southwest on the slopes of Mount Kenya and the Aberdares (LWF <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0041">2012</xref>). There are two main rainy seasons with the &#x2018;long rains&#x2019; falling from March to May, with April being the wettest month, followed by the &#x2018;short rains&#x2019; in November. This range of temperatures and rainfall provides habitats for a large number of native and introduced plant and animal species.</p>
<p>Laikipia is in a transition zone for three major vegetation types: &#x2018;Somalia-Masai Semi-desert Grassland and Shrubland&#x2019;, &#x2018;Somalia-Masai Acacia-Commiphora Bushland and Thicket&#x2019; and &#x2018;Afromontane Undifferentiated Montane Vegetation&#x2019; (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>). This diversity of vegetation types accounts in part, for the high biological diversity of Laikipia.</p>
<p>Land uses in the county include: (1) mix of ranching (livestock farming) and wildlife conservation, which is the most dominant land use, followed by (2) pastoralism and wildlife, (3) cultivation, (4) pastoralism and cultivation, (5) forests, (6) wildlife ranching and (7) urban settlements (LWF <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0041">2012</xref>). The county is a unique combination of large-scale ranches that make up about 40&#x0025; of the landscape, with the remainder consisting mainly of community-owned lands. The large-scale ranches focus mainly on wildlife conservation, tourism and raising beef cattle, while the communities are mainly pastoralists. In fact, more than 80&#x0025; of people in Laikipia are dependent on livestock (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20004">
<title>Species surveys</title>
<p>We recorded all alien plant species during roadside surveys similar to those undertaken by Henderson (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2007</xref>), Rejm&#x00E1;nek et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0052">2017</xref>), Shackleton et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0057">2017a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0058">2017b</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0059">2017c</xref>), Witt and Luke (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>) and Witt et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0082">2018</xref>) over 2 years from 2014 to 2015. Driving on all accessible roads, including jeep tracks, we recorded the location (using a handheld global positioning system device) and status (present, naturalised and/or invasive), of all alien species that are also known to be naturalised or invasive elsewhere (outside of Laikipia County), based on a review of global databases (CABI <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2019</xref>; ISSG <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0034">2015</xref>), and other sources (Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0082">2018</xref>). Alien species were recorded as naturalised if they reproduced consistently, and had established self-sustaining populations that had not yet spread widely, whereas invasive species are those that produce large numbers of reproductive offspring that have spread over substantial distances (Blackburn et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0004">2011</xref>; Richardson et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0053">2000</xref>). Alien species present in lodge or other gardens, in areas where the main land use was conservation, were surveyed on foot. We only recorded those alien species that are known to be transformers with the potential to have a major impact on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. This information, together with data on the species growth form, origin and uses, was largely gleaned from the same sources described above. We did not record any alien ruderal or agricultural weeds that are not considered to have a significant impact on biodiversity or rangeland productivity. No surveys of alien species were undertaken in towns because it was logistically too complex to survey a large number of gardens when most home owners were not present during the day.</p>
<p>A new locality for any particular species was only recorded if it was seen at least 1 km from the previous record. In situations where a species could not be immediately identified, specimens were collected or photographed for later identification by specialists. Naturalised and invasive grass species were not recorded, whereas <italic>Morus, Bougainvillea</italic> and <italic>Eucalyptus</italic> species were only recorded to genus level because of difficulties in identifying individual species within these genera; they were included in the analysis as &#x2018;species&#x2019;. Vines and many herbaceous plant species are often difficult to observe in the field, especially when not in flower and as such, may have been under-recorded or in some cases not recorded at all. So the absence of a record in a particular area does not mean that the species is not present, just that it was not seen during our surveys.</p>
<p>Locality data acquired through surveys were entered into a database, and distributions were then mapped at 1/16 degree grid cells (~11 km &#x00D7; 11 km) for the most widespread and abundant invasive alien plant species, based on the number of grid cells in which the species was recorded. If a plant species was found to be present, naturalised and invasive at various localities in the same cell, then the latter took precedence in the species map, indicating that it was found to be invasive in at least one locality within that particular cell.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20005">
<title>Eco-climatic suitability and impacts of selected species</title>
<p>There are numerous invasive and potentially invasive plant species already present in Laikipia (Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). In addition, there are a number of problematic species that are abundant and widespread outside of Laikipia, which could potentially invade the county (Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). We adapted only published eco-climatic suitability models or developed new models for those species currently present in Laikipia, or absent yet present in the eastern African region, which pose disproportionate threats to biodiversity and rangeland productivity. These are aggressive invaders that are known to displace valuable forage species, reducing carrying capacities of wildlife and livestock, and ultimately impacting on the welfare of communities. The species of most concern in the eastern African region are <italic>Prosopis juliflora</italic> (Sw.) DC (Fabaceae), <italic>Lantana camara</italic> L. (Verbenaceae), <italic>Tithonia diversifolia</italic> (Hemsl.) Gray (Asteraceae), <italic>Parthenium hysterophorus</italic> L. (Asteraceae), <italic>O. stricta, Chromolaena odorata</italic> (L.) R.M. King &#x0026; H. Rob (Asteraceae), <italic>Mimosa pigra</italic> L. (Fabaceae), <italic>Parkinsonia aculeata</italic> L. (Fabaceae) and <italic>Cryptostegia grandiflora</italic> Roxb. Ex R. Br (Asclepiadaceae) (Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0082">2018</xref>). Although some of these species such as <italic>L. camara, T. diversifolia, P. hysterophorus</italic> (one grid cell) and <italic>O. stricta</italic> are already present in Laikipia, the others have not been recorded there yet. To estimate whether climatic conditions in Laikipia will support further invasions of species already present in the county, and those that are currently absent, yet present in the region, CLIMEX eco-climatic models (Kriticos &#x0026; Randall <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0037">2001</xref>) were applied for <italic>C. odorata</italic> (Kriticos et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0040">2005</xref>), <italic>P. hysterophorus</italic> (Kriticos et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0039">2015</xref>), <italic>L. camara</italic> (Taylor et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0066">2012</xref>), <italic>M. pigra</italic> (Walden et al. 2002), <italic>P. aculeata</italic> (Van Klinken et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0073">2009</xref>) or developed <italic>de novo</italic> for <italic>O. stricta</italic> (D.J. Kriticos unpublished data), <italic>P. juliflora</italic> (D.J. Kriticos unpublished data) and <italic>T. diversifolia</italic> (J.M. Kriticos unpublished data). CLIMEX is used to fit eco-climatic niche models to estimate the potential distribution or phenology of organisms based on distribution data for the target organism, and additional information about the response of the organism to weather variables drawn from experiments or phenological observations (Kriticos et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0039">2015</xref>; Sutherst &#x0026; Maywald <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0065">1985</xref>). The resulting models can then be applied to climatic data to explore the climatic suitability of new regions, in this case East Africa, and more specifically Laikipia County. The distribution data used in the unpublished models were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Witt and Luke (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Specific sources of locality data are described in the relevant model publications (Kriticos et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0040">2005</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0039">2015</xref>; Taylor et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0066">2012</xref>; Van Klinken et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0073">2009</xref>; Walden et al. 2002).</p>
<p>We became aware that the known distribution of <italic>C. grandiflora</italic> in South Africa exceeded its niche as modelled using CLIMEX. Therefore, the published model of <italic>C. grandiflora</italic> was modified to fit distribution data from the South Africa Plant Invaders Atlas (SAPIA) database (Henderson &#x0026; Wilson <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0025">2017</xref>), which had been acquired subsequent to the development of the original model developed by Kriticos et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0036">2003</xref>). The only parameter that needed adjustment was the Minimum Annual Heat Sum for Reproduction (PDD), which was reduced to 1200 &#x00B0;C days, allowing the model results to agree with the distribution data.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20006">
<title>Ethical consideration</title>
<p>This article followed all ethical standards for a research without direct contact with human or animal subjects.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s0007">
<title>Results</title>
<sec id="s20008">
<title>Species surveys</title>
<p>Almost 50&#x0025; of the grid cells in Laikipia were surveyed to some extent (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0002">Figure 2</xref>). It was not possible, because of logistic and other reasons, to survey every single garden, even in areas where the predominant land use was conservation. One-hundred and forty-five alien plant species were seen and recorded during our surveys (Online Appendix 1). This includes <italic>Calotropis procera</italic> (Aiton) Dryand. (Apocynaceae), <italic>Ipomoea cairica</italic> (L.) Sweet (Convolvulaceae), <italic>Ricinus communis</italic> L. (Euphorbiaceae), <italic>Senna didymobotrya</italic> (Fresen.) H.S. Irwin &#x0026; Barneby (Fabaceae) and <italic>Solanum campylacanthum</italic> A. Rich (Solanaceae), which have an uncertain origin, although considered by some to be native to eastern Africa (See Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). They were considered to be naturalised and/or invasive in our analysis. There was also uncertainty as to the identification of <italic>Vinca major</italic> L. (Apocynaceae), <italic>Azolla filiculoides</italic> Lam. (Azollaceae) and <italic>Crocosmia x crocosmiiflora</italic> (Lemoine) N.E.Br. (Iridaceae), but these were nevertheless also included as such in the analysis. This uncertainty occurred because <italic>V. major</italic> and <italic>V. minor</italic> L. are morphologically very similar to each other, whereas <italic>A. filiculoides</italic> could be confused with <italic>A. cristata</italic> Kaulf. (Salviniaceae), which is more common in tropical regions, or the native <italic>A. pinnata</italic> subsp. <italic>africana</italic> (Desv.) Saunders and Fowler. Both <italic>Argemone mexicana</italic> L. and <italic>A. ochroleuca</italic> Sweet were recorded as a single taxon.</p>
<fig id="F0002">
<label>FIGURE 2</label>
<caption><p>Map showing the areas surveyed in Laikipia County, Kenya (surveyed area shown in 1/16 degree grid squares; ~ 11 km &#x00D7; 11 km).</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="KOEDOE-62-1605-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Most of the alien species recorded were in the families Fabaceae (16 species), Asteraceae (12), Crassulaceae (11), Cactaceae (10) and Solanaceae (8). Of the 145 alien plant species recorded, 67 were considered to be naturalised in Laikipia, although there was uncertainty with regard to the invasion status of <italic>Cosmos bipinnatus</italic> Cav. (Asterceae), which was included as naturalised for the purposes of this study. Most naturalised species recorded belonged to the families Cactaceae (nine species), Crassulaceae (nine), Asteraceae (eight), Fabaceae (six) and Solanaceae (five). Thirty-seven species were regarded as being invasive in Laikipia, belonging mainly to the Asteraceae (six species), followed by five species in each of Fabaceae and Solanaceae, and four in each of Crassulaceae and Cactaceae.</p>
<p>The dominant growth forms of all alien species in Laikipia considered to be naturalised, invasive or potentially invasive included trees or shrubs (59 species), followed by herbs (31) and climbers (16) (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T0001">Table 1</xref>). Naturalised species were dominated by herbs (20 species) and trees or shrubs (19), with invasive plants following a similar pattern. Most of these alien species were intentionally introduced as ornamentals, although some ornamentals were also used for other purposes (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T0002">Table 2</xref>). Most of the naturalised and invasive plant species were used, among others, for ornamental, barrier or agricultural purposes. The majority of naturalised species (27) were only used for ornamental purposes, and 14 of the invasive plant species had no other uses other than ornamental. The vast majority of aliens included in this study originated from tropical America (74), followed by species from temperate Africa (17) and Madagascar (11), and most of those considered to be naturalised and invasive also had a tropical American origin (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T0003">Table 3</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap id="T0001">
<label>TABLE 1</label>
<caption><p>Growth forms of alien species seen in Laikipia County, Kenya, considered to be naturalised, invasive or potentially invasive.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Growth form</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">All aliens</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Naturalised</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Invasive</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Woody tree or shrub</td>
<td align="center">59</td>
<td align="center">19</td>
<td align="center">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Herb</td>
<td align="center">31</td>
<td align="center">20</td>
<td align="center">13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Climber</td>
<td align="center">16</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Succulent herb</td>
<td align="center">16</td>
<td align="center">9</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Succulent tree or shrub</td>
<td align="center">14</td>
<td align="center">13</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Aquatic</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Woody tree or shrub or climber</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Fern</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="T0002">
<label>TABLE 2</label>
<caption><p>Uses of alien species seen in Laikipia County, Kenya, considered to be naturalised, invasive or potentially invasive.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Use</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">All aliens</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Naturalised</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Invasive</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Ornament</td>
<td align="center">142</td>
<td align="center">60</td>
<td align="center">32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Barrier</td>
<td align="center">54</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Agriculture</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">14</td>
<td align="center">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Medicinal</td>
<td align="center">17</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Domestic</td>
<td align="center">16</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Silviculture</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Cover or binder</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">None</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="T0003">
<label>TABLE 3</label>
<caption><p>Regions of origin of species seen in Laikipia County, Kenya, considered to be naturalised, invasive or potentially invasive.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Origin</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Numbers</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Naturalised</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Invasive</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Africa &#x2013; Temperate</td>
<td align="center">17</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Africa &#x2013; Tropical</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">America &#x2013; Temperate</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">America &#x2013; Tropical</td>
<td align="center">74</td>
<td align="center">35</td>
<td align="center">21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Asia &#x2013; Temperate</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Asia &#x2013; Tropical</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Australia/Asia &#x2013; Tropical</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Australia &#x2013; Temperate</td>
<td align="center">8</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Australia &#x2013; Tropical</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Eurasia</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Madagascar</td>
<td align="center">11</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Mediterranean</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Oceania</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
<td align="center">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="s20009">
<title>Distribution</title>
<p><italic>Opuntia ficus-indica</italic> was seen (recorded as present) in 43&#x0025; of the grid cells surveyed, followed by <italic>Austrocylindropuntia subulata</italic> (41&#x0025;), <italic>Datura stramonium</italic> L. (Solanaceae) (38&#x0025;), <italic>Agave sisalana</italic> (37&#x0025;), <italic>O. stricta</italic> (31&#x0025;) and <italic>Agave americana</italic> (30&#x0025;). <italic>Opuntia ficus-indica</italic> was the most widely naturalised species, followed by <italic>A. americana, A. subulata, A. sisalana</italic> and <italic>O. stricta. Datura stramonium</italic> L. (Solanaceae) was the most widespread invasive plant species seen, recorded as such in 28 of the 111 grid cells surveyed, followed by <italic>O. stricta</italic> (19), <italic>O. ficus-indica</italic> (18), <italic>Cirsium vulgare</italic> (Savi) Ten. (Asteraceae) (14), <italic>A. subulata</italic> (11), <italic>Xanthium strumarium</italic> L. (Asteraceae) (9), <italic>Bryophyllum delagoense</italic> (Eckl. &#x0026; Zeyh.) Schinz (Crassulaceae) (9), <italic>Verbena bonariensis</italic> L. (Verbenaceae) (6) and <italic>Acacia mearnsii</italic> De Wild. (Fabaceae) (5) (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0003">Figure 3</xref>). <italic>Datura stramonium</italic> was scattered and widespread throughout Laikipia, present wherever there was significant disturbance, especially along roadsides, whereas most other invasive plant species had a clumped distribution. Although species such as <italic>B. delagoense</italic> and <italic>O. engelmannii</italic> (Salm-Dyck ex Engelm. (Cactaceae) were not widespread in Laikipia, they were invasive in 75&#x0025; or more of the grid cells in which they were recorded. Invasive species such as <italic>Pistia stratiotes</italic> L. (Araceae), <italic>P. aculeata, P. juliflora, C. grandiflora, M. pigra</italic> and <italic>Passiflora subpeltata</italic> Ortega (Passifloraceae), which are widespread elsewhere in Kenya and/or eastern Africa, were not seen in Laikipia during surveys.</p>
<fig id="F0003">
<label>FIGURE 3</label>
<caption><p>Maps showing the distribution of nine of the most widespread invasive plant species in Laikipia County, Kenya.</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="KOEDOE-62-1605-g003.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s20010">
<title>Eco-climatic modelling</title>
<p>The CLIMEX eco-climatic niche models indicate that much of Laikipia is climatically very suitable for further invasions by <italic>O. stricta</italic> (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0004">Figure 4</xref>). Climatic conditions may also favour the establishment and proliferation of <italic>P. aculeata</italic> and <italic>P. juliflora</italic>, and <italic>P. hysterophorus</italic> is likely to establish and spread throughout most of Laikipia. However, we postulate that it is unlikely to be as problematic as in other areas in eastern Africa that are more climatically suitable (e.g. south-western and southern Kenya). The present climate in Laikipia does not appear to be suitable for <italic>C. odorata</italic>, although <italic>L. camara</italic> may expand its current distribution but is unlikely to proliferate (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0004">Figure 4</xref>). Climatic conditions are suitable for <italic>C. grandiflora</italic> and <italic>T. diversifolia.</italic> With no extensive floodplains or swamps, <italic>M. pigra</italic> is unlikely to invade in Lakipia, although plants may establish along some water bodies.</p>
<fig id="F0004">
<label>FIGURE 4</label>
<caption><p>The eco-climatic suitability of Laikipia County, Kenya, for nine plant species known to be invasive in eastern Africa based on CLIMEX eco-climatic niche models. Shading depicts the eco-climatic indices (suitability of each location); the darker the shading, the more suitable the climate in that area is for these species to establish and proliferate.</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="KOEDOE-62-1605-g004.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s0011">
<title>Discussion</title>
<p>The presence of a large number of alien species, mainly ornamentals, a range of climatic regimes (LWF <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0041">2012</xref>), vegetation types (Butynski &#x0026; De Jong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2014</xref>) and land-use practices ranging from crop production to conservation (LWF <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0041">2012</xref>) increase the risk of plant invasions (Catford, Jansson &#x0026; Nilsson <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0008">2009</xref>; Saunders, Hobbs &#x0026; Margules <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0055">1991</xref>) across the Laikipia landscape. Data from protected areas in South Africa support this assertion (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>; eds. Foxcroft et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0019">2017</xref>). The GRNP and Table Mountain National Park, both in South Africa, are similar in some respects in that they are both fragmented, and nestled among a range of different land-use types, with comparable numbers of alien plant species (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>). The GRNP consists of approximately 30 detached portions, with farmland, plantations and towns dispersed along its boundaries, making it highly susceptible to invasions (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>). Of the 244 species of alien plants recorded outside of gardens in the GRNP, 23 were casual aliens, 66 were naturalised, 144 were invasive and 12 were transformers (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>). These figures are comparable to those of Table Mountain NP (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>). The only national park in South Africa which has more plant species listed as invasive, based on the <italic>National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act</italic> (NEM:BA) than either the GRNP (98 species) or Table Mountain NP (114), is the considerably larger KNP with 130 species (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>; eds. Van Wilgen &#x0026; Herbst <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0075">2017</xref>). However, 96 species recorded as invasive in GRNP are not listed by NEM:BA as requiring regulation (Baard &#x0026; Kraaij <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2014</xref>), which supports the contention that fragmented conservation areas within mixed-use landscapes may be at higher risk of invasions. There is no similar comparative data for eastern Africa, other than that from the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, which also consists of multiple land-use types, but has two large contiguous conservation areas, far larger than in Laikipia, in the Serengeti NP and Masai-Mara National Reserve. Witt et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>) recorded 245 alien plant species in this ecosystem, of which 212 were intentionally introduced. Of these 212 species, 23 were invasive (Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>) compared with 67 naturalised and 37 invasive plant species in Laikipia. According to Spear et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0061">2013</xref>), high human populations and their associated activities, which may include gardening, in areas surrounding protected areas, may be driving these invasions.</p>
<p>Plants in cultivation are often the main source of invasions (Bucharova &#x0026; Van Kleunen <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0005">2009</xref>; Hulme et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0030">2008</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0032">2014</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0031">2018</xref>; Van Kleunen, Bossdorf &#x0026; Dawson <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0071">2018</xref>). According to Van Kleunen et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0071">2018</xref>), at least 75&#x0025; and 93&#x0025; of the globalised naturalised alien flora is grown in domestic and botanical gardens, respectively. The substantial <italic>O. stricta</italic> invasion in Kruger NP originated from plants in the staff village in Skukuza (Foxcroft at al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0018">2004</xref>). We also assume that the <italic>O. stricta</italic> invasion in Laikipia reportedly originated from plantings in the Colonial Administrators residence in Doldol (0&#x00B0;24&#x2032;00.0&#x2033;N; 37&#x00B0;10&#x2032;00.0&#x2033;E), a small town in the east of Laikipia County, although invasions of <italic>O. engelmannii</italic> on Loisaba Conservancy (0&#x00B0;21&#x2032;38.1&#x2033;N; 36&#x00B0;46&#x2032;55.3&#x2033;E) originated from hedge plants that had been discarded in a quarry from where they subsequently spread.</p>
<p>Many of the <italic>Bryophyllum</italic> and <italic>Crassula</italic> species spreading in Laikipia are cultivated in gardens, largely because they are so well adapted to local conditions. The escape and subsequent establishment of <italic>Cereus jamacaru</italic> DC. (Cactaceae) on Ol Jogi Conservancy (0&#x00B0;18&#x2032;54.78&#x2033;N; 36&#x00B0;58&#x2032;32.15&#x2033;E) in Laikipia can also be directly linked to plants grown in lodge gardens on the property (Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). <italic>Austrocylindropuntia subulata</italic> has escaped cultivation and has established widely, mainly along water channels (Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Despite being invasive, it is still actively being planted as a hedge, and in some cases, even used on earthen dam walls on conservancies to prevent elephant damage (A.B.R. Witt pers. observ.).</p>
<p>The threat of naturalised, invasive and potentially invasive succulent species, with the exception of <italic>O. stricta</italic> and <italic>O. engelmannii</italic>, is largely being ignored in Laikipia, despite their known negative impacts (Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). For example, similar to other invasive cactus species, <italic>C. jamacaru</italic> can form dense stands, displacing native plants and preventing access to forage by grazers and browsers, resulting in reduced livestock- and/or wildlife-carrying capacities. Thickets may also impede the movement of livestock and wildlife, and the spines may cause injuries to people and animals (see Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Other potentially invasive cacti, such as <italic>Cylindropuntia imbricata</italic> (Haw.) Knuth (Cactaceae) and <italic>Opuntia microdasys</italic> (Lehm.) Pfeiff., are also present in the town of Doldol. According to ISSA (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0033">2016</xref>), the spiny cladodes of <italic>C. imbricata</italic> adhere to &#x2018;passing animals and the barbed spines can penetrate their skin and feet causing severe injuries&#x2019; (n.p.). The succulent herb <italic>B. delagoense</italic> is another aggressive invader that is expanding its range rapidly in Laikipia. It is allelopathic, so it can readily displace grasses and legumes, forming dense monotypic stands (Groner <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0024">1975</xref>). It is also highly toxic (McKenzie &#x0026; Armstrong <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0043">1986</xref>). In 1997, 125 head of cattle died after eating this species on a travelling stock reserve near Moree in New South Wales, Australia (McKenzie, Franke &#x0026; Dunster <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0044">1987</xref>). No activities are being undertaken to manage any of these invasive and potentially invasive plant species.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s0012">
<title>Appropriate management responses</title>
<p>Alien plant invasions pose significant threats to conservation and livelihoods in Laikipia County (Shackleton et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0059">2017c</xref>; Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; Witt &#x0026; Luke <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). As such, it would be prudent to develop and implement management strategies to reduce the threats of all invasive and potentially invasive plant species. To that end, it is imperative that all naturalised, invasive and potentially invasive alien plant species be removed from the grounds of all tourist facilities and possibly also villages that fall within areas where the main land-use practice is livestock production and conservation. Those plants that have already escaped cultivation should be eradicated, if possible, or their further spread contained. Finally, biological control solutions for widespread and abundant species should be implemented wherever possible, as has been performed for <italic>O. stricta</italic> and initiated for <italic>O. engelmannii</italic> (Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0084">2020</xref>).</p>
<p>Many plant invasions in protected areas have originated from tourism facilities and staff villages (Foxcroft &#x0026; Freitag-Ronaldson <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0015">2007</xref>; Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Although attempts to remove these species may be resisted by many residents (Foxcroft et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0014">2008</xref>), this opposition could largely be overcome by implementing a more gradual and nuanced approach. For example, strategies implemented in the Kruger NP included the removal of high-risk species first, followed by the removal of low-risk species at a later stage, and the clearing of staff gardens whenever a house was vacated (Foxcroft at al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0014">2008</xref>). Another approach may be to replace alien species with native species, facilitated through the establishment of nurseries focussing on indigenous plantings. Actions can also be supported by undertaking Weed Risk Assessments, or similar, which should ideally include eco-climatic maps to determine the climatic suitability of Laikipia to invasions by selected species (Kriticos, Beautrais &#x0026; Dodd <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0038">2018</xref>). Cost&#x2013;benefit analyses (CBAs) should ideally also be undertaken to consider issues around those species that have benefits but are also known to be invasive &#x2013; the so-called conflict species such as <italic>Prosopis juliflora</italic> (Wise, Van Wilgen &#x0026; Le Maitre <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0079">2012</xref>).</p>
<p>If no scientific evidence is available to support these actions, then the precautionary principle (Principle 15 of the 1992 Rio Declaration) which states that &#x2018;where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation&#x2019; (n.p.) (UN <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0067">1992</xref>) should be invoked. Finally, there is also legislation, supporting the removal of invasive and even exotic species from protected areas (see Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). Failure to remove invasive or potentially invasive species will merely increase management costs as they escape cultivation and proliferate (eds. Wittenberg &#x0026; Cock <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0085">2001</xref>).</p>
<p>Once alien species have escaped cultivation and established in natural habitats all efforts should be made to eradicate populations, if possible. This can only be achieved if new incursions are detected early and populations are small and localised (eds. Wittenberg &#x0026; Cock <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0085">2001</xref>). This requires the establishment of surveillance teams or units that are well versed in the identification of alien plant species. Resources should also be available at short notice to implement any interventions. <italic>Cereus jamacaru</italic> is currently a good target for local eradication because it has only recently escaped cultivation in Laikipia (Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>). If this species is not targeted as a matter of urgency, control costs will increase over time as will the impacts on biodiversity.</p>
<p>For widespread and abundant species, we strongly advocate the use of biological control, if effective agents are available (Day, Witt &#x0026; Winston <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0010">2020</xref>; Winston et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0078">2014</xref>; Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0080">2017</xref>; eds. Wittenberg &#x0026; Cock <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0085">2001</xref>). Reviews have indicated that this is a very safe management intervention (see Hinz, Winston &#x0026; Schwarzl&#x00E4;nder <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0027">2019</xref>). Ideally, biological control should be integrated with other control practices, wherever possible. Biological control is cost-effective, sustainable and environmentally friendly (Day &#x0026; Witt <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2019</xref>; Van Wilgen &#x0026; De Lange <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0074">2011</xref>; eds. Wittenberg &#x0026; Cock <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0085">2001</xref>). There are many additional benefits associated with biological control including the fact that agents establish self-perpetuating populations, often across the whole range of the target species (Greathead <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">1995</xref>). In addition, most biological control projects only require a one-off investment, and benefits can be reaped by many stakeholders independent of their financial status and irrespective of the fact that if they contributed to the initial research (Greathead <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">1995</xref>). The economic returns from biological control projects have also been phenomenal with estimated benefit&#x2013;cost ratios ranging from 8:1 up to 3726:1 in South Africa (Van Wilgen &#x0026; De Lange <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0074">2011</xref>).</p>
<p>Although rarely implemented in Kenya, biological control has widely been used at a global level with 1555 separate and intentional releases of 469 species of biological control agents against 175 invasive plant species across 90 countries (Winston et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0078">2014</xref>). There are a number of widespread and abundant invasive plant species in Laikipia that could be targeted for biological control (Winston et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0078">2014</xref>). The cochineal <italic>Dactylopius opuntiae</italic> (Cockerell) &#x2018;stricta&#x2019; biotype (Dactylopiidae), recently introduced for the control of <italic>O. stricta</italic>, is already established in Laikipia (Witt et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0084">2020</xref>). Species such as <italic>O. ficus-indica</italic> and <italic>O. monacantha</italic> have been brought under good control through the introduction of cochineal in the last century (Winston et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0078">2014</xref>). Permission is currently being sought from the regulatory authorities to introduce another biotype of <italic>D. opuntiae</italic> for the control of <italic>O. engelmannii. Cereus jamacaru</italic> has also been brought under good biological control in South Africa (Zachariades et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0086">2017</xref>), an option should this species become invasive, although populations are currently such that it can still be eradicated in Laikipia. Although <italic>P. hysterophorus</italic> populations are currently localised, biological control agents could also be introduced (Strathie, McConnachie &#x0026; Retief <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0062">2011</xref>), should the species expand its range in Laikipia.</p>
<p>Additional agents are also available for <italic>L. camara</italic> (Urban et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0069">2011</xref>), and agents were recently released for the control of <italic>T. diversifolia</italic> in South Africa (Simelane, Mawela &#x0026; Fourie <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0060">2011</xref>). A number of agents are also available for other alien plants present in Laikipia that could potentially become invasive, provided that they pose no risk to native plants. However, there are a number of targets for which no effective or host-specific agents have been found. For example, despite the sourcing of a number of potential agents for the control of <italic>B. delagoense</italic>, none are suitably host-specific for release in Africa. In this case, concerted efforts will need to be made using conventional means to stop its further spread and reduce the density of current invasions. Intervention strategies will need to be developed and implemented for every species based on the control methodologies available locally and internationally. Failure to manage invasive alien plants in Laikipia will lead to the demise of biodiversity and erode rangeland productivity to the detriment of its people.</p>
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<ack>
<title>Acknowledgements</title>
<p>Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI) gratefully acknowledges the core financial support from our member countries (and lead agencies) including the United Kingdom (Department for International Development), China (Chinese Ministry of Agriculture), Australia (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research), Canada (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada), the Netherlands (Directorate-General for International Cooperation) and Switzerland (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). See <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.cabi.org/about-cabi/who-we-work-with/key-donors/">https://www.cabi.org/about-cabi/who-we-work-with/key-donors/</ext-link> for details. The authors are grateful to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for providing resources for surveys throughout Laikipia County. We also acknowledge the support of Ol Jogi Conservancy and thank Lesley Henderson for reviewing a previous draft of the manuscript.</p>
<sec id="s20013" sec-type="COI-statement">
<title>Competing interests</title>
<p>The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationships that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20014">
<title>Authors&#x2019; contributions</title>
<p>A.B.R.W was responsible for undertaking the field surveys, assisted by W.N. who also entered the field data. T.B. undertook the spatial analysis and compiled the maps, and D.J.K. contributed to the development of the CLIMEX niche models. The interpretation of the results and writing of the article was undertaken by A.B.R.W. with inputs from the other authors.</p>
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<sec id="s20015">
<title>Funding information</title>
<p>This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20016">
<title>Data availability statement</title>
<p>Much of the data has been uploaded to the GBIF website - Witt, A.B.R. &#x0026; Beale, T., 2018, CABI Africa Invasive and Alien Species data. CAB International. Occurrence dataset can be accessed at <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.15468/pkgevuviaGBIF.org">https://doi.org/10.15468/pkgevu via GBIF.org</ext-link>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20017">
<title>Disclaimer</title>
<p>The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any affiliated agency of the authors.</p>
</sec>
</ack>
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<fn-group>
<fn><p><bold>How to cite this article:</bold> Witt, A.B.R., Nunda, W., Beale, T. &#x0026; Kriticos, D.J., 2020, &#x2018;A preliminary assessment of the presence and distribution of invasive and potentially invasive alien plant species in Laikipia County, Kenya, a biodiversity hotspot&#x2019;, <italic>Koedoe</italic> 62(1), a1605. <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v62i1.1605">https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v62i1.1605</ext-link></p></fn>
<fn><p><bold>Note:</bold> Additional supporting information may be found in the online version of this article as Online Appendix 1</p></fn>
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