Original Research

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

A.M. Woodd
Koedoe | Vol 42, No 1 | a226 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v42i1.226 | © 1999 A.M. Woodd | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 31 July 1999 | Published: 31 July 1999

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A.M. Woodd, University of Port Elizabeth, South Africa

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Abstract

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Keywords

Addo, demographic model, age structure, future population growth

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