Original Research

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

A.M. Woodd
Koedoe | Vol 42, No 1 | a226 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v42i1.226 | © 1999 South African National Parks
Submitted: 31 July 1999 | Published: 31 July 1999

About the author(s)

A.M. Woodd, University of Port Elizabeth, South Africa

Full Text:

PDF (1MB)

Abstract

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Keywords

Addo, demographic model, age structure, future population growth

Metrics

Total abstract views: 7276
Total article views: 4747

 

Crossref Citations

1. Modelling the effect of age-specific mortality on elephant Loxodonta africana populations: can natural mortality provide regulation?
Leigh-Ann Woolley, Robin L. Mackey, Bruce R. Page, Rob Slotow
Oryx  vol: 42  issue: 1  first page: 49  year: 2008  
doi: 10.1017/S0030605308000495

2. Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park
Leigh-Ann Woolley, Joshua J. Millspaugh, Rami J. Woods, Samantha Janse van Rensburg, Robin L. Mackey, Bruce Page, Rob Slotow, Robert Brooks
PLoS ONE  vol: 3  issue: 9  first page: e3233  year: 2008  
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0003233

3. Survival profiles from linear models versus Weibull models: Estimating stable and stationary population structures for Pleistocene large mammals
Jesús A. Martín-González, Guillermo Rodríguez-Gómez, Paul Palmqvist
Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports  vol: 25  first page: 370  year: 2019  
doi: 10.1016/j.jasrep.2019.03.031

4. The age structure and growth of female sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in southern Australian waters
Karen Evans, Mark A. Hindell
Journal of Zoology  vol: 263  issue: 3  first page: 237  year: 2004  
doi: 10.1017/S0952836904005096

5. A parametrical model to describe a stable and stationary age structure for fossil populations
Jesús A. Martín-González, Ana Mateos, Guillermo Rodríguez-Gómez, Jesús Rodríguez
Quaternary International  vol: 413  first page: 69  year: 2016  
doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2016.01.038

6. Elephants in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa: reconstruction of the population's history
Anna. M. Whitehouse, Anthony. J. Hall-Martin
Oryx  vol: 34  issue: 01  first page: 46  year: 2000  
doi: 10.1017/S0030605300030891

7. Elephants in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa: reconstruction of the population's history
Anna. M. Whitehouse, Anthony. J. Hall-Martin
Oryx  vol: 34  issue: 1  first page: 46  year: 2000  
doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3008.2000.00093.x

8. Growth and age determination of African savanna elephants
A. M. Shrader, S. M. Ferreira, M. E. McElveen, P. C. Lee, C. J. Moss, R.J. Van Aarde
Journal of Zoology  vol: 270  issue: 1  first page: 40  year: 2006  
doi: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2006.00108.x

9. Demographic responses of an insular elephant population to removal as a management intervention
Robert A. R. Guldemond, Cornelius J. Louw, Celesté Maré, Camilla Nørgaard, Rudi J. van Aarde
Conservation Science and Practice  vol: 4  issue: 8  year: 2022  
doi: 10.1111/csp2.12741

10. Modelling the effectiveness of contraception for controlling introduced populations of elephant in South Africa
Robin L. Mackey, Bruce R. Page, Douw Grobler, Rob Slotow
African Journal of Ecology  vol: 47  issue: 4  first page: 747  year: 2009  
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2028.2009.01075.x